By Alison Kershaw and Jane Kirby, Press Association
Friday, 17 July 2009

The Department for Children, Schools and Families (DCSF) said while it is expected schools and nurseries would open as usual at the start of the academic year, they “cannot be certain what the situation will be” in the autumn. The UK total number of deaths linked to swine flu now stands at 29. About 1,000 schools have already recorded cases of swine flu, the DCSF message to schools said, though most have remained open. At the start of the outbreak, affected schools closed in an attempt to contain the virus, but the UK has now moved away from containment. The DCSF said it was looking at the situation on a day by day basis, and would be monitoring developments over the summer. Decisions on closures would be taken based on the best advice available shortly before the start of term, the message said. A message will be sent to schools in the last week of August informing them of what to do at the start of term.
The DCSF message said: “As the summer term is drawing to an end, it is important to ensure that everyone will be in a position to know what will happen at the start of the autumn term. A planning document published by the Department of Health yesterday suggested that if the current growth in cases was sustained, there could be a peak in early September, with up to 30% of the population experiencing symptoms. But there are also suggestions the epidemic could begin to slow down over this month and next, before a resurgence in autumn, when schools reopen. Twenty six people have died in England and three in Scotland, including a tourist with significant underlying medical conditions, who died at Raigmore Hospital in Inverness on Wednesday night. The wife of former prime minister Tony Blair, Cherie Blair, has pulled out of a series of public engagements while she has the virus. The Health Protection Agency (HPA) estimates there were 55,000 new cases of swine flu in England in the last week, including people visiting GPs and those who are looking after themselves at home. Up to 85,000 people could be currently affected, the HPA modelling shows. Margaret Morrissey, of lobby group Parents Outloud, said ministers should have closed schools across the country early for the summer.
“I do think the Government has had a major event of mismanagement here. They should have shut down schools and public places, not forever, but to stop the virus spreading.” She said that if it was possible to open schools in September then that should go ahead. But Mrs Morrissey called for the Government to hand money to employers so that their staff can stay at home with their children if they are affected by swine flu. “We helped the banks out, how about helping parents?” she said.
In areas severely affected by swine flu, schools should remain closed until children have been vaccinated, Mrs Morrissey suggested. “We might have to, in some schools, keep them closed until the vaccine is in place,” she said. “There could be a decision that schools have got to say to parents ‘If your finances can be supported, do you agree with having the school closed until the children are vaccinated?”‘

It says: “People are likely to be repeatedly exposed to the virus in their everyday lives. Closing a school will no longer be effective in slowing the spread of the virus as people could still be exposed outside the school.

“In some special circumstances – for example, a school with children who are particularly vulnerable to infection – then school closures might still be recommended.”

The Evening Standard reported that the 39-year-old woman who died at Whipps Cross Hospital in London had given birth shortly before dying.

She died on Monday and her baby, who was born prematurely, is in intensive care, the newspaper said.

The woman, thought to be from Bangladesh, had five other children, it added.

A spokesman for Whipps Cross said: “Whipps Cross University Hospital NHS Trust can confirm that a 39-year-old woman passed away on July 13, 2009, and that she was infected with pandemic H1N1.

“The trust can confirm that she had underlying health conditions. No further comments can be made at this time.”

Dr Laurence Buckman, head of the British Medical Association’s GPs’ Committee, said people were “scared stiff” when they did not need to be.

He told the BBC: “The problem is that we have 60 million people who are scared stiff.

“Certainly there is a risk, but for most people it is the fear rather than a reality.

“The mortality rate is pretty similar to seasonal flu, although it is hitting younger age groups. For most it will be a nasty but relatively mild illness.

“But we are getting so much information that people are getting worried.

“The risk is that people who are ill do not get through and that includes people who have not got the flu, but have diabetes, heart disease or asthma. That would be disastrous.”